The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs

Game will take place Sunday, October 11, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

CHI Money Line

+355
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$355
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
21.97%

KC Money Line

-445
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$122.47
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
81.65%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CHI PlaysKC Plays CHI WsKC Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.06
Badly Ahead and Well 00.76
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.060
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.670
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.860
Average Below Avg 2.412.77
Above Avg Below Avg 1.351.16
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.520
Average Above Avg 0.960.54
Badly Above Avg 00.5
Behind and Awful Well 00.98
Average Well 00.56
Badly Well 01.38
Behind but Well Well 1.180
13.0412.74

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CHI PlaysKC Plays CHI WsKC Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.330
Group 2 Group 5 0.020.77
Group 0 Group 5 1.31.99
Group 5 Group 4 0.830
Group 3 Group 4 1.120
Group 2 Group 3 00.32
Group 4 Group 3 01.86
Group 4 Group 2 00.27
Group 2 Group 2 0.680.71
Group 1 Group 1 1.781.72
Group 0 Group 0 1.60.01
7.697.69

Head-to-Head History of CHI @ KC

Day Outcome CHI Played KC Played
Sunday, October 11, 2015 1 pt W CHI Behind but Well Well