The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Game will take place Thursday, October 8, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

IND Money Line

+195
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$195
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
33.89%

HOU Money Line

-215
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$146.51
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
68.25%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

IND PlaysHOU Plays IND WsHOU Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 05.56
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.470
Above Avg Behind and Awful 3.210.35
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.130
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.65
Average Below Avg 2.371.59
Above Avg Below Avg 0.950.29
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.820
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.42
Average Above Avg 0.520
Behind and Awful Well 01.12
Average Well 0.690
Badly Well 0.883.44
14.0813.46

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

IND PlaysHOU Plays IND WsHOU Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.521.43
Group 1 Group 5 0.810.81
Group 0 Group 5 00.42
Group 5 Group 4 0.660
Group 3 Group 4 2.340
Group 4 Group 3 02.69
Group 2 Group 2 0.011.49
Group 4 Group 1 00.23
Group 2 Group 1 0.410
Group 1 Group 1 0.321.27
Group 0 Group 0 2.60.41
8.78.78

Head-to-Head History of IND @ HOU

Day Outcome IND Played HOU Played
Thursday, October 8, 2015 7 pt W IND Above Avg Behind and Awful
Thursday, October 9, 2014 5 pt W IND Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, November 3, 2013 3 pt W IND Badly Well
Sunday, December 16, 2012 12 pt W HOU Behind and Awful Below Avg
Sunday, September 11, 2011 27 pt W HOU Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 12, 2010 10 pt W HOU Badly Well
Sunday, November 29, 2009 8 pt W IND Behind but Well Below Avg