The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

Game will take place Monday, October 5, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DET PlaysSEA Plays DET WsSEA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.2
Badly Ahead and Well 00.81
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.480
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.620
Average Below Avg 2.752.95
Above Avg Below Avg 2.091.07
Behind but Well Below Avg 00
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.83
Badly Above Avg 00.44
Behind and Awful Well 01.54
Average Well 00.98
Badly Well 0.293.8
Average Behind but Well 00.94
7.2417.6

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DET PlaysSEA Plays DET WsSEA Ws
Group 4 Group 5 00.21
Group 2 Group 5 0.712.39
Group 1 Group 5 0.410
Group 0 Group 5 1.031.31
Group 3 Group 4 1.240
Group 2 Group 3 00.44
Group 4 Group 3 02.65
Group 4 Group 2 00.3
Group 2 Group 2 0.140.43
Group 2 Group 1 0.921.37
Group 1 Group 1 02.76
Group 0 Group 0 0.430.94
4.912.85

Head-to-Head History of DET @ SEA

Day Outcome DET Played SEA Played
Monday, October 5, 2015 3 pt W SEA Average Well
Sunday, November 8, 2009 12 pt W SEA Average Behind but Well