The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints

Game will take place Sunday, October 4, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DAL PlaysNO Plays DAL WsNO Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.77
Badly Ahead and Well 00.66
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.550
Average Behind and Awful 00.39
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.80.39
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.010
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.53
Average Below Avg 3.893.66
Above Avg Below Avg 1.560.8
Average Well 0.391.11
Badly Well 01.25
Behind but Well Well 0.840
12.0812.6

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DAL PlaysNO Plays DAL WsNO Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.621.15
Group 1 Group 5 00.37
Group 0 Group 5 1.471.75
Group 3 Group 4 1.160.24
Group 0 Group 4 0.770
Group 4 Group 3 01.46
Group 4 Group 2 00.77
Group 2 Group 2 00.96
Group 1 Group 1 1.140.71
Group 0 Group 0 1.450.14
7.627.58

Head-to-Head History of DAL @ NO

Day Outcome DAL Played NO Played
Sunday, October 4, 2015 6 pt W NO Average Well
Sunday, November 10, 2013 32 pt W NO Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Saturday, December 19, 2009 7 pt W DAL Above Avg Behind and Awful