The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Game will take place Sunday, October 4, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

JAC PlaysIND Plays JAC WsIND Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.89
Badly Ahead and Well 00.94
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.330
Average Behind and Awful 0.450
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.340.98
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.770
Average Below Avg 1.872.54
Above Avg Below Avg 00.47
Badly Below Avg 00.93
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.430.43
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.64
Average Above Avg 00.4
Behind and Awful Well 02.26
Average Well 01.53
Badly Well 02.9
Above Avg Behind but Well 00.44
6.2319.41

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

JAC PlaysIND Plays JAC WsIND Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.010
Group 2 Group 5 1.431.5
Group 0 Group 5 0.180.93
Group 3 Group 4 0.890.21
Group 0 Group 4 00
Group 4 Group 3 02.74
Group 0 Group 2 00.01
Group 1 Group 2 00.71
Group 2 Group 2 01.01
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 03.2
Group 0 Group 0 0.950.56
3.4910.9

Head-to-Head History of JAC @ IND

Day Outcome JAC Played IND Played
Sunday, October 4, 2015 3 pt W IND Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 23, 2014 20 pt W IND Behind and Awful Well
Sunday, December 29, 2013 20 pt W IND Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 23, 2012 5 pt W JAC Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 13, 2011 14 pt W JAC Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 19, 2010 10 pt W IND Behind and Awful Well
Sunday, September 13, 2009 2 pt W IND Average Well