The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals

Game will take place Sunday, October 4, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

KC Money Line

+170
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$170
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
37.03%

CIN Money Line

-200
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$150
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
66.66%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

KC PlaysCIN Plays KC WsCIN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.65
Badly Ahead and Well 01.61
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.010
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.320.31
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.130
Average Below Avg 2.443.93
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.580
Average Above Avg 00.55
Badly Above Avg 00.63
Behind and Awful Well 01.03
Badly Well 02.97
Behind but Well Well 0.670
10.1615.71

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

KC PlaysCIN Plays KC WsCIN Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.550.44
Group 1 Group 5 00.52
Group 0 Group 5 1.251.02
Group 3 Group 4 2.640
Group 4 Group 3 02.52
Group 0 Group 2 00
Group 2 Group 2 0.591.27
Group 2 Group 1 0.090.2
Group 1 Group 1 0.342.02
Group 0 Group 0 0.260.32
5.748.34

Head-to-Head History of KC @ CIN

Day Outcome KC Played CIN Played
Sunday, October 4, 2015 15 pt W CIN Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 27, 2009 7 pt W CIN Average Above Avg