The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons

Game will take place Sunday, October 4, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

HOU Money Line

+240
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$240
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
29.41%

ATL Money Line

-280
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$135.71
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
73.68%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

HOU PlaysATL Plays HOU WsATL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.44
Badly Ahead and Well 01.29
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.130
Average Behind and Awful 00.29
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.611.35
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.43
Average Below Avg 2.013.05
Above Avg Below Avg 00
Badly Below Avg 00.79
Average Above Avg 0.220.84
Behind and Awful Well 00.6
Average Well 00.77
Badly Well 02.64
Behind but Well Well 0.710
7.714.52

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

HOU PlaysATL Plays HOU WsATL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.821.13
Group 1 Group 5 0.110.12
Group 0 Group 5 1.080.58
Group 3 Group 4 1.230
Group 4 Group 3 02.59
Group 1 Group 2 00.62
Group 2 Group 1 0.320
Group 1 Group 1 0.031.16
Group 0 Group 0 3.190.79
6.817.01

Head-to-Head History of HOU @ ATL

Day Outcome HOU Played ATL Played
Sunday, October 4, 2015 27 pt W ATL Badly Ahead and Well