The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears

Game will take place Sunday, October 4, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

OAK Money Line

-160
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$162.5
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
61.53%

CHI Money Line

+140
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$140
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
41.66%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

OAK PlaysCHI Plays OAK WsCHI Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.22
Badly Ahead and Well 01.17
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.110
Average Behind and Awful 00.25
Above Avg Behind and Awful 3.020
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.740.22
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.72
Average Below Avg 1.032.5
Above Avg Below Avg 0.460.33
Average Above Avg 00.71
Badly Above Avg 00.48
Average Well 00.88
Badly Well 02.53
8.3813.05

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

OAK PlaysCHI Plays OAK WsCHI Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.122.41
Group 0 Group 5 1.870.31
Group 5 Group 4 0.340
Group 3 Group 4 0.710
Group 0 Group 4 00
Group 4 Group 3 02.02
Group 2 Group 2 00.41
Group 2 Group 1 00.13
Group 1 Group 1 01.48
Group 0 Group 0 2.570.32
5.647.11

Head-to-Head History of OAK @ CHI

Day Outcome OAK Played CHI Played
Sunday, October 4, 2015 2 pt W CHI Average Below Avg