The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions

Game will take place Sunday, September 27, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

DEN Money Line

-165
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$160.6
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
62.26%

DET Money Line

+145
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$145
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
40.81%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DEN PlaysDET Plays DEN WsDET Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.22
Badly Ahead and Well 00.99
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.520
Average Behind and Awful 0.780.78
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.320.75
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.630
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.42
Average Below Avg 4.422.22
Above Avg Below Avg 0.550.83
Badly Below Avg 00.49
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.630
Average Above Avg 0.660
Badly Above Avg 00.52
Average Well 01.48
Badly Well 00.93
Behind but Well Well 1.480
16.0311.67

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DEN PlaysDET Plays DEN WsDET Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.780
Group 2 Group 5 1.491.66
Group 0 Group 5 0.120.9
Group 5 Group 4 0.90
Group 3 Group 4 2.230
Group 0 Group 4 1.370.43
Group 4 Group 3 00.91
Group 5 Group 2 0.120
Group 4 Group 2 00.52
Group 2 Group 2 0.410.43
Group 2 Group 1 0.190.29
Group 1 Group 1 00.97
Group 0 Group 0 1.521
9.167.16

Head-to-Head History of DEN @ DET

Day Outcome DEN Played DET Played
Sunday, September 27, 2015 12 pt W DEN Ahead and Well Below Avg