The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Game will take place Sunday, September 27, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

BUF Money Line

+135
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$135
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
42.55%

MIA Money Line

-155
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$164.51
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
60.78%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

BUF PlaysMIA Plays BUF WsMIA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.37
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.230
Average Behind and Awful 00.41
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.210.27
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.59
Average Below Avg 2.633.06
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.370
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.62
Average Above Avg 0.450.64
Average Well 0.991.5
Badly Well 02.89
Behind but Well Well 0.730
9.6313.39

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

BUF PlaysMIA Plays BUF WsMIA Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.662.02
Group 1 Group 5 00.68
Group 0 Group 5 0.440.72
Group 3 Group 4 1.340
Group 0 Group 4 0.270
Group 4 Group 3 01.64
Group 4 Group 2 00.18
Group 2 Group 2 00
Group 2 Group 1 00.46
Group 1 Group 1 0.261.12
Group 0 Group 0 1.870.83
5.867.68

Head-to-Head History of BUF @ MIA

Day Outcome BUF Played MIA Played
Sunday, September 27, 2015 27 pt W BUF Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Thursday, November 13, 2014 13 pt W MIA Behind and Awful Below Avg
Sunday, October 20, 2013 2 pt W BUF Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 23, 2012 14 pt W MIA Badly Well
Sunday, November 20, 2011 27 pt W MIA Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 19, 2010 3 pt W BUF Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 4, 2009 28 pt W MIA Behind and Awful Ahead and Well