The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

San Fransisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Game will take place Sunday, September 27, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

SF Money Line

+220
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$220
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
31.25%

ARI Money Line

-260
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$138.46
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
72.22%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

SF PlaysARI Plays SF WsARI Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.06
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.160
Average Behind and Awful 0.740.74
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.580
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.50
Behind and Awful Below Avg 01.11
Average Below Avg 1.615.31
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.40
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.88
Average Above Avg 00.64
Average Well 00.45
Badly Well 01.58
10.0114.81

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

SF PlaysARI Plays SF WsARI Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.352.62
Group 0 Group 5 01.84
Group 3 Group 4 2.030
Group 4 Group 3 01.99
Group 2 Group 3 00.02
Group 2 Group 2 00.07
Group 4 Group 2 00.22
Group 2 Group 1 0.150.51
Group 1 Group 1 01.04
Group 0 Group 0 2.380.44
5.928.78

Head-to-Head History of SF @ ARI

Day Outcome SF Played ARI Played
Sunday, September 27, 2015 40 pt W ARI Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 21, 2014 9 pt W ARI Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 29, 2013 3 pt W SF Above Avg Behind and Awful
Monday, October 29, 2012 21 pt W SF Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 11, 2011 2 pt W ARI Average Below Avg
Monday, November 29, 2010 21 pt W SF Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 13, 2009 4 pt W SF Average Below Avg