The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Game will take place Sunday, September 27, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

IND Money Line

-175
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$157.14
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
63.63%

TEN Money Line

+155
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$155
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
39.21%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

IND PlaysTEN Plays IND WsTEN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.5
Badly Ahead and Well 00.45
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.880
Average Behind and Awful 0.410.42
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.810
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.180
Average Below Avg 3.491.93
Above Avg Below Avg 0.660
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.920.27
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.82
Average Above Avg 0.930.34
Behind and Awful Well 00.89
Average Well 0.810
Badly Well 0.652.95
Behind but Well Well 0.830
17.6211.62

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

IND PlaysTEN Plays IND WsTEN Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.760.72
Group 0 Group 5 00.2
Group 5 Group 4 0.70
Group 3 Group 4 3.010
Group 0 Group 4 0.110
Group 4 Group 3 01.88
Group 4 Group 2 00.3
Group 2 Group 2 0.010.32
Group 1 Group 1 0.270.4
Group 2 Group 0 0.630
Group 0 Group 0 1.50.72
8.034.56

Head-to-Head History of IND @ TEN

Day Outcome IND Played TEN Played
Sunday, September 27, 2015 2 pt W IND Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 28, 2014 17 pt W IND Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Thursday, November 14, 2013 3 pt W IND Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 28, 2012 6 pt W IND Average Above Avg
Sunday, October 30, 2011 17 pt W TEN Behind and Awful Above Avg
Thursday, December 9, 2010 2 pt W IND Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, October 11, 2009 22 pt W IND Ahead and Well Behind and Awful