The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

Game will take place Sunday, September 27, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

JAC Money Line

+700
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$700
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
12.5%

NE Money Line

-1100
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$109.09
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
91.66%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

JAC PlaysNE Plays JAC WsNE Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 08.32
Badly Ahead and Well 00.79
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 0.740
Average Behind and Awful 0.580.99
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.781.25
Average Below Avg 1.772.27
Above Avg Below Avg 00.67
Badly Below Avg 01.39
Average Above Avg 00.78
Behind and Awful Well 01.54
Average Well 00.8
Badly Well 03.29
Above Avg Behind but Well 01.01
3.8823.16

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

JAC PlaysNE Plays JAC WsNE Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.010.01
Group 4 Group 5 00.46
Group 2 Group 5 1.581.7
Group 0 Group 5 0.140.36
Group 0 Group 4 00.2
Group 4 Group 3 03.93
Group 0 Group 2 00.01
Group 1 Group 2 00.8
Group 2 Group 2 00.99
Group 4 Group 2 00.45
Group 2 Group 1 00.6
Group 1 Group 1 02.55
Group 0 Group 0 0.881.06
2.6213.17

Head-to-Head History of JAC @ NE

Day Outcome JAC Played NE Played
Sunday, September 27, 2015 34 pt W NE Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 27, 2009 28 pt W NE Behind and Awful Ahead and Well