The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans

Game will take place Sunday, September 27, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

TB Money Line

+240
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$240
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
29.41%

HOU Money Line

-280
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$135.71
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
73.68%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

TB PlaysHOU Plays TB WsHOU Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.95
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.010
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00.23
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.880
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.64
Average Below Avg 1.462.9
Above Avg Below Avg 0.850.42
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.140
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.62
Average Above Avg 0.50
Behind and Awful Well 00.7
Average Well 00
Badly Well 02.7
7.8613.19

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

TB PlaysHOU Plays TB WsHOU Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.471.54
Group 1 Group 5 00.77
Group 0 Group 5 0.60.86
Group 5 Group 4 1.020
Group 3 Group 4 1.340
Group 4 Group 3 01.76
Group 2 Group 2 01.7
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 0.021.37
Group 0 Group 0 2.260.39
5.728.43

Head-to-Head History of TB @ HOU

Day Outcome TB Played HOU Played
Sunday, September 27, 2015 10 pt W HOU Behind and Awful Ahead and Well