The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Game will take place Sunday, September 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NO PlaysCAR Plays NO WsCAR Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.04
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.760
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.760
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.120
Average Below Avg 2.92.97
Above Avg Below Avg 1.390.67
Badly Below Avg 01
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.40
Behind and Awful Above Avg 01.1
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 00.79
Badly Well 03.88
11.3713.49

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NO PlaysCAR Plays NO WsCAR Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.180
Group 2 Group 5 0.271.86
Group 1 Group 5 00.47
Group 0 Group 5 1.280.54
Group 3 Group 4 1.10
Group 0 Group 4 0.40
Group 4 Group 3 02.31
Group 2 Group 2 0.030.4
Group 2 Group 1 00.47
Group 1 Group 1 02.5
Group 5 Group 0 0.780
Group 0 Group 0 0.420.61
4.499.19

Head-to-Head History of NO @ CAR

Day Outcome NO Played CAR Played
Sunday, September 27, 2015 5 pt W CAR Average Below Avg
Thursday, October 30, 2014 18 pt W NO Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, December 22, 2013 4 pt W CAR Average Below Avg
Sunday, September 16, 2012 8 pt W CAR Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 9, 2011 3 pt W NO Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, November 7, 2010 31 pt W NO Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, January 3, 2010 13 pt W CAR Badly Well