The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

Game will take place Sunday, September 27, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

ATL Money Line

-125
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$180
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
55.55%

DAL Money Line

+105
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$105
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
48.78%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

ATL PlaysDAL Plays ATL WsDAL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.86
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.010
Average Behind and Awful 0.410
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.850.42
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.930
Average Below Avg 4.443.35
Above Avg Below Avg 0.360.38
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.76
Average Above Avg 1.161.16
Badly Above Avg 00.7
Badly Well 01.79
Behind but Well Well 1.220
13.4211.45

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

ATL PlaysDAL Plays ATL WsDAL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.272.12
Group 1 Group 5 00.35
Group 0 Group 5 1.170.9
Group 5 Group 4 0.660
Group 3 Group 4 1.40
Group 0 Group 4 0.390
Group 1 Group 3 00.01
Group 4 Group 3 01.2
Group 4 Group 2 00.32
Group 2 Group 2 0.420.42
Group 0 Group 2 0.360
Group 2 Group 1 0.010
Group 1 Group 1 0.231.03
Group 0 Group 0 0.630.68
6.587.07

Head-to-Head History of ATL @ DAL

Day Outcome ATL Played DAL Played
Sunday, September 27, 2015 11 pt W ATL Behind but Well Well
Sunday, October 25, 2009 16 pt W DAL Behind and Awful Ahead and Well