The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Game will take place Monday, December 1, 2014

Our model believes that the Jets are most likely to win this game.

MIA Money Line

-290
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$134.48
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
74.35%

NYJ Money Line

+245
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$245
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
28.98%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

MIA PlaysNYJ Plays MIA WsNYJ Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.87
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.980
Average Behind and Awful 0.390.6
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.720.52
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.470
Average Below Avg 2.782.48
Above Avg Below Avg 0.910.25
Badly Below Avg 00.44
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 01.43
Average Well 00
Badly Well 02.82
Behind but Well Well 0.790
Average Behind but Well 00.43
11.0611.89

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

MIA PlaysNYJ Plays MIA WsNYJ Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.371.49
Group 0 Group 5 0.731.43
Group 5 Group 4 0.780
Group 3 Group 4 1.830
Group 1 Group 3 00.11
Group 2 Group 3 00.28
Group 4 Group 3 01.85
Group 2 Group 2 1.461.46
Group 0 Group 2 0.110.11
Group 1 Group 1 0.541.75
Group 0 Group 0 0.850.15
6.78.66

Head-to-Head History of MIA @ NYJ

Day Outcome MIA Played NYJ Played
Sunday, November 29, 2015 18 pt W NYJ Badly Well
Monday, December 1, 2014 3 pt W MIA Behind but Well Well
Sunday, December 1, 2013 20 pt W MIA Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, October 28, 2012 21 pt W MIA Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Monday, October 17, 2011 18 pt W NYJ Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 12, 2010 4 pt W MIA Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 1, 2009 5 pt W MIA Average Below Avg